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debate for the challenger, not the incumbent. also noted no candidate as far behind as romney at this point has never won. the challenger tend to get a modest bump because he's the new kid on the block and most people get to see him for the first time. number two, it's new england enough of a bump except in rare cases like kennedy, he pointed out reagan and -- >> reagan. >> most of the time it's not enough of a bump. basically we're looking at the final. >> what nate silver documents there in great detail mathematically is what the common sense thing of this is. mitt romney not only has to show up. he's got to hit it out of the park. and he's got to essentially try to -- >> does he know that? >> oh, yes, they know that. well, thaement's a very interes question, chris, they told me repeatedly they see this as a series of three encounters, three presidential and one vp. i think they're kidding themselves -- >> do you think people will watch if he doesn't win tonight -- watch again? >> romney has to win and win big tonight. the mathematics that nate silver is talking about take o
start with the debate. which of these two guys romney or obama can make the biggest gaffe, who can launch the deadliest zinger? that's the word romney's people. is this the dean martin rose to don rickles, is that the part we're casting here? sorry. i thought it was president of the united states. the person who will lead the west, lift this country up from long economic struggle, take us to a stronger, fair american future. i'm looking for the big thought tonight, the fresh, crisp, candid thinking that is the very essence of any set of solutions we can come up with. a fear a sling shot war, pestering salvos, crating bites for the next tv ads, words to be packaged and pitched out to us as examples of spontaneous vision and uncanny wisdom. i'm looking for the real thing. smart calls to action by someone who knows his number one job is simply to tell us what needs to be done. i'm joined by former white house press sect dedee dee myers and howard fineman. >> assume you're mitt romney and you have had a terrible summer, september and august, all the way through. you boopted it in londo
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